Despite New Leadership, It's Business as Usual in Lebanon

Delays in forming a new government have sowed widespread disappointment in Lebanon despite the appointment of a president and prime minister. Before they could even get started, it seems that President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam's tenures are already faltering. Lebanon's political heavyweights— Hezbollah and Amal, not-so-affectionately referred to as the "Shiite duo"—seem to be the reason.

They have been quick to post Lebanese residents' jubilant return to their villages on social media and political platforms but have been conspicuously silent on the 24 Lebanese who were killed and over 100 injured after Israeli troops shot at them while returning to their homes.

Instead, they use tried-and-tested tactics to cling to power through the “weapons for corruption” strategy they have adopted since the 2008 Doha Accord was signed. These two forces of Lebanon’s politics—corruption and weapons—have long protected each other. Whenever an opportunity arises to confront either corruption or the unchecked proliferation of arms, the two forces reinforce each other’s survival.

Dashed hopes

Aoun and Salam's selection seemed to demonstrate a renewed will to confront the pillars of corruption in the country after Israel weakened Hezbollah through a series of deadly blows in the latter half of 2024.

But, unsurprisingly, the pillars of corruption are resisting the change and standing in the way of establishing a competent government that could begin to tackle the long-standing crises that have ravaged Lebanon. This includes those who collaborated with Hezbollah for material gain over the span of three decades, which saw their ascent to power.

Beyond infiltrating state institutions, Hezbollah has built an intricate network of relationships, loyalties, and policies. People are rewarded materially but have also come to covet the prestige that comes along with being part of the 'elite club'.

Alternative reality

Despite Hezbollah bringing death and destruction to Lebanon, it seems that no one will dare attempt to hold them accountable. And while many Lebanese see the group as weakened, Hezbollah's supporters seem to be living in an alternative reality. In fact, they still believe the group can thrive for several reasons, including their parallel economy and entrenched grip on state institutions. 

Instead of coming up with an alternative defence strategy that entrusts the state and army with the responsibility to protect its citizens, they cling to the old "army, people, and resistance" formula.

While the "Shiite duo" acts like nothing has changed, the massive death and destruction left behind from Israel's latest war on Lebanon says otherwise.