Lebanon is awaiting three international conferences aimed at securing support to confront its political and economic crisis and to rebuild what was destroyed by the Israeli army during its recent war and repeated violations of the ceasefire. But experts say any international assistance is “not easily attainable” and will not be “a blank cheque,” remaining conditional on substantial reforms and a clear commitment to the principle of arms being confined to the state.

The conferences, whose timing has not yet been set, are expected to cover support for the Lebanese army, reconstruction and investment promotion.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said, “The path of exclusive state control over weapons has become a national choice with no turning back.”

He outlined the government’s priorities for the coming stage, identifying three milestones as key pillars: first, a conference on reconstruction and economic recovery to mobilise resources for infrastructure and revive the economy, second, a conference to support the Lebanese army by securing funding, logistics and equipment to strengthen stability and extend state authority and third, the “Beirut 1” investment conference to open new horizons for investors and consolidate international confidence in Lebanon.

“These milestones are interconnected and complement one another,” Salam said. “Economic recovery cannot be achieved without security stability, and stability cannot be consolidated without strong institutions and an attractive investment environment.”

A Lebanese government source said “three conferences are being prepared: one to support the army, another for reconstruction, and a third for investment,” adding that reconstruction and investment were linked to domestic reforms and commitments to international agreements.

The source, who asked not to be named, said none of the three conferences had yet been scheduled, but the army support conference was the closest in time, likely to be held in the autumn.

Political analyst Alan Sarkis said the international initiatives followed the election of a new president, Joseph Aoun, earlier this year, and the formation of a new government. But, he added, securing support “remains conditional on two main issues: political and economic.

“Political support is clearly tied to implementing the principle of exclusive state control of weapons and carrying out required reforms,” Sarkis said, warning that “any retreat from this path will freeze international aid.”

He said both Arab and Western states “will not provide support to a state that may fall under Hezbollah’s control.

“There will be no financial or economic support without a genuine commitment to confining weapons to the state and restoring Lebanon’s normal relations with its Arab environment and the international community,” he said.

On the economic front, Sarkis noted that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who recently visited Beirut, told Lebanese officials that no financial support would be provided before genuine, deep reforms began, “far from cosmetic reforms.” Donor states, he said, “will not provide a blank cheque.”

Regarding conditions for support, Sarkis said Lebanon was required to carry out reforms, which he did not specify, and ensure exclusive state control of weapons, describing both as fundamental prerequisites for any assistance.

On timing, Sarkis said the most important conference, and the one most likely to take place in October, was the army support meeting. He said the French envoy had discussed the matter with Saudi officials, and Lebanese leaders had been informed of preliminary agreement to hold it.

He added the conference could take place in either Paris or Riyadh and would focus on supporting the army under a specific programme that included implementing its plan to confine weapons to the state.

This meeting, he said, was separate from the reconstruction and investment conferences, which remained conditional on Lebanon carrying out reforms and honouring its agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

On August 5, the cabinet endorsed exclusive state control over weapons, including those held by Hezbollah, and tasked the army with devising a plan to achieve this during the same month and implement it before the end of 2025.

On September 5, the government approved the army’s plan, welcomed it, and decided to keep its content and deliberations “confidential.”

By contrast, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem has repeatedly insisted the group would only surrender its weapons if Israel withdrew from Lebanese territory, ended its aggression, released prisoners and reconstruction began.

Lebanese economic analyst Mounir Younes said the international path to support for Lebanon was directly tied to the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament.

He said the army support conference included a plan to provide the military with about $10 billion over ten years, a proposal included in a US paper presented to Lebanon’s president. The paper envisaged $1 billion annually in support in return for progress on disarmament.

On June 19, US envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack submitted a paper to the Lebanese government proposing Hezbollah’s disarmament and confinement of arms to the state in return for Israel’s withdrawal from five border points it occupies in the south, along with the release of funds for rebuilding war-damaged areas.

Younes said Lebanon’s reconstruction costs from Israel’s assault had been initially estimated at about $5 billion, a figure linked to progress on disarmament, except for infrastructure projects usually financed by the World Bank, which are not directly subject to this condition.

“The international community sees this issue as a decisive indicator of political progress,” he said, noting that “any support in this regard will be conditional on clear steps towards a lasting solution, with disarmament as a core component.”

Regarding the investment conference, Younes said its objectives remained unclear, but it was based on a preliminary agreement reached with the IMF in 2022, which envisaged $3 billion from the fund and a further $8 billion from donors to help close the financing gap.

As a unifying theme across the three conferences, Younes said all remained conditional on progress on disarmament. “The international community is waiting for tangible breakthroughs on this issue before the end of 2025 or mid-2026 to begin delivering on promises of financial support,” he said.