A senior Palestinian official said on Monday that plans to disarm Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon have been postponed indefinitely. Originally scheduled to begin this June, the operation has been shelved due to the “current regional circumstances,” with Palestinian authorities coordinating closely with their Lebanese counterparts.

The abrupt delay reflects how the escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran is reshaping Lebanon’s internal agenda, diverting attention from domestic initiatives and raising concerns that the country may once again become an arena for regional conflict.

Lebanese observers see the postponement as a telling retreat. Disarming the camps was intended to signal resolve by Lebanon’s new leadership, but uncertainty over the scale and duration of the Israel-Iran conflict appears to have thrown that ambition into disarray. With no clarity on whether the conflict will be a brief skirmish or a drawn-out war, Lebanese authorities are treading cautiously.

Should the regional situation deteriorate and Iran activate its proxy networks, including Hezbollah, Israel may respond with a military incursion into southern Lebanon. Even a limited operation could aim to dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal. Yet Lebanon’s security institutions have so far approached the group’s disarmament with noticeable hesitation, suggesting a deliberate effort to delay action until the regional balance of power becomes clearer.

Sources close to Lebanon’s security establishment indicate that some factions still view Hezbollah as the country’s most capable deterrent against an Israeli invasion. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), sidelined from meaningful military engagement for years, remain ill-equipped and politically-constrained, frequently seen as operating in de facto alignment with Hezbollah’s strategic agenda.

In this context, advancing with any disarmament process, even within the confines of Palestinian camps, risks sparking confrontation. Hezbollah is on high alert, anticipating the possibility of orders from Tehran to open a new front against Israel. Stripping arms from factions aligned with Hezbollah, such as Hamas or Islamic Jihad, could provoke a direct backlash.

Officials in Beirut are also acutely aware that Hezbollah’s previous acceptance of disarmament was likely tactical, a manoeuvre to defuse international pressure. Turning that rhetorical concession into concrete action would be politically perilous and, in practical terms, nearly unfeasible for any domestic or foreign force, including the LAF.

According to regional analysts, the indefinite postponement of the Palestinian disarmament plan is a strategic decision aimed at avoiding friction with Hezbollah and its allies. Many of the weapons in the camps are thought to originate from Hezbollah or have been supplied to its allied factions. Any move to confiscate them would risk casting Lebanese forces as proxies for Israeli interests, a dangerous narrative in a country where Hezbollah continues to command significant popular support.

The Palestinian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “Given the current conditions in the region, the decision has been made to delay the collection of weapons inside the camps.” No revised timeline was provided.

The official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that Palestinian security and military forces would carry out the operation “in full coordination with Lebanese authorities, once conditions allow and after the necessary preparations are complete.”

WAFA added that the State of Palestine remains committed to the joint communiqué issued on 21 May 2025, following a summit between Lebanese President General Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The two leaders pledged support for Lebanese sovereignty, the extension of state authority across all territory, and the principle of exclusive state control over arms.

That May summit also produced an agreement to establish a joint Lebanese-Palestinian committee to monitor conditions in the camps, reiterating a shared commitment to the state’s monopoly on legitimate force.

Over 493,000 Palestinian refugees live in Lebanon, many in difficult conditions across a network of camps governed internally by Palestinian factions under a legacy arrangement dating back to the 1969 Cairo Agreement. That accord transferred control of the camps from the Lebanese military to the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). Although the Lebanese parliament officially annulled the agreement in 1987, its practical effects have endured: Lebanese security forces do not enter the camps, while the army maintains tight external controls.

Palestinian factions maintain that arms within the camps are essential to their resistance efforts and the right of return. For now, amid heightened tensions, even addressing the issue symbolically appears too risky, leaving the question of disarmament unresolved and Lebanon’s security posture increasingly dictated by events beyond its borders.