Repeated incidents of rockets launched from southern Lebanon falling inside Christian border towns have raised growing questions among residents and security observers, with some experts arguing that the pattern cannot be explained solely by technical errors.

Grad and Katyusha rockets, frequently used in cross-border attacks, are inherently inaccurate weapons designed to strike broad geographic areas rather than specific targets. However, the recurring scenario of rockets landing in towns such as Rmeish, Qlayaa, Ain Ebel and Debel before reaching Israeli territory has fueled concerns that extend beyond purely military considerations.

While Hezbollah continues to present itself as a resistance movement directing its weapons toward Israel, residents of these border communities have repeatedly found themselves in the path of the projectiles, with rockets landing near homes, agricultural lands and populated areas before reaching what were supposedly their intended targets across the border.

The incidents have drawn particular attention because the affected towns have long represented examples of resilience along Lebanon’s southern frontier. Despite years of security threats and economic hardship, many residents have remained in their villages, prompting questions over whether the repeated rocket falls are simply accidental or whether other factors may be involved.

Retired Brig. Gen. Saeed Al-Qozah, a former Lebanese Army artillery specialist, offered a technical assessment of the phenomenon, arguing that it should not be dismissed as a series of isolated mishaps.

Al-Qozah told Nidaa Al-Watan that Grad and Katyusha rockets naturally have a high margin of error compared with conventional artillery systems and are primarily intended to strike what military planners classify as area targets rather than precise point targets.

Nevertheless, he said several factors could contribute to rockets deviating from their intended trajectories.

Among them is the use of old or improperly stored munitions. According to Al-Qozah, moisture can penetrate the rocket’s propellant section, disrupting combustion during flight and causing the projectile to fall short of its target.

He also pointed to the operational pressures faced by launch crews, particularly under constant Israeli aerial surveillance conducted by drones and reconnaissance aircraft.

“The pressure of the battlefield and continuous Israeli monitoring often force launch teams to carry out rapid firing operations,” he said, adding that such conditions increase the risk of errors in calculating launch coordinates, direction and elevation angles.

Another factor, he said, is the stability of launch platforms. If a launcher becomes unbalanced after firing its first rocket, subsequent projectiles may veer away from their planned trajectories.

Al-Qozah further cited what he described as limited military expertise among some Hezbollah operatives and noted that many launchers are not standard military systems manufactured according to the specifications used by regular armies.

Instead, many are locally produced or modified in the field, which can reduce both accuracy and stability during firing operations. He also noted that the Lebanese Army has previously confiscated and destroyed Hezbollah weapons stockpiles, affecting the availability of equipment.

However, Al-Qozah said the geographical realities surrounding the incidents raise some of the most significant questions.

According to field data, Qlayaa lies approximately six to seven kilometers from the nearest border point near Kfarkila, while Marjayoun is around eight kilometers from Metula. Debel is roughly four kilometers from the Blue Line, Ain Ebel five kilometers, and Rmeish only about one and a half kilometers from the border.

Given those distances, Al-Qozah argued that errors of five kilometers or more warrant closer scrutiny.

“The fall of one or two rockets due to technical malfunction remains possible,” he said. “But when entire salvos or large numbers of rockets land inside populated towns, a serious investigation is needed to determine the actual causes.”

Beyond the military analysis, observers following developments in southern Lebanon say the explanation of simple technical error does not fully account for the pattern, particularly because some of the affected towns are located relatively far from the immediate confrontation zone.

Sources monitoring the situation told Nidaa Al-Watan that the repeated impact of rockets inside Christian border villages raises broader political and security questions.

The sources said it cannot be ruled out that one objective behind the recurring incidents may be to encourage residents to gradually leave their villages, creating additional areas along the border that could be used for military activity and rocket launches toward Israel without local opposition or a significant civilian presence.

Such concerns have fueled debate among residents and observers over the true reasons behind the repeated rocket falls, with some arguing that the projectiles appear to be striking Rmeish, Qlayaa and Ain Ebel before reaching Israeli cities such as Kiryat Shmona or even more distant targets.