Tensions in the Lebanese Parliament over electoral reforms have laid bare the political calculations of the country’s main blocs.

Statements by Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad that “there is no level playing field in expat elections” highlight why the Shiite Duo—Hezbollah and the Amal Movement—along with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), oppose amending the current voting law. That law restricts expatriate voters to electing six MPs designated for the diaspora, rather than allowing them to vote in their home constituencies as residents do.

This position stems largely from the 2022 elections, when overseas ballots overwhelmingly favored opposition candidates, particularly independents and reformists. For Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, any change could further erode their share in parliament.

Lebanon’s political forces remain sharply divided: on one side are Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, who oppose amending Article 122 of the electoral law, which reserves six seats for expatriates. On the other are the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, the Democratic Gathering, independents, and reformist MPs, all of whom support proposals to allow expatriates to vote in their original districts in 2026.

Tensions flared during Monday’s parliamentary session when Speaker Nabih Berri rejected efforts to add the amendment to the session’s agenda. Researcher Mohammad Shamseddine told Asharq Al-Awsat that this refusal reflects concerns that expanding expatriate voting would yield even more unfavorable results for these factions.

Shamseddine noted that nearly one million Lebanese abroad are eligible to vote—almost a third of the electorate. In 2022, around 141,000 expatriates cast ballots, influencing outcomes in eight districts and twelve seats, mostly in favor of reformist candidates. That number could rise to 250,000 in 2026, amplifying the diaspora’s impact.

According to Shamseddine, Hezbollah and its allies secured only about 29,000 expatriate votes in 2022, compared to 27,000 for the Lebanese Forces alone—a gap that is expected to widen.

For analyst Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, Hezbollah’s resistance also reflects its desire to prevent military setbacks from translating into political defeat. He argues that the party is clinging to what influence it still holds, particularly since it struggles to mobilize diaspora voters as effectively as it does domestically.

Meanwhile, expatriate groups and Maronite bishops abroad have urged the Lebanese government to safeguard their right to vote in their home constituencies. Maronite Bishop Charbel Tarabay warned against any attempt to “deprive expatriates of their connection to the homeland.”

Opposition parties, including the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, have pledged to resist what they describe as efforts to sideline the diaspora. As Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea declared: “We will use every democratic and legal means to restore expatriates’ right to vote in their districts—to keep them tied to Lebanon.”