A newly announced Lebanese-Palestinian agreement pledging to limit arms possession exclusively to the Lebanese state has reignited longstanding questions over the future of weapons held by Hamas and other Islamist factions in Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps. 

The agreement’s emphasis on state control over arms has brought renewed focus on the role of Hamas, whose influence in Lebanon’s camps has grown over the past decade, as well as other armed factions operating largely independently of both the Palestinian Authority and the Lebanese state. With Hezbollah facing increasing constraints, the support network that once shielded these groups appears to be eroding.

Hamas has responded cautiously, expressing openness to any step that would help stabilize Lebanon, while emphasizing that decisions regarding its arms cannot be made unilaterally.

“Hamas is open to anything that contributes to Lebanon’s stability,” a Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat. “However, Mahmoud Abbas represents the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. Any decision concerning Hamas’ weapons or those of other factions must come through consultation and dialogue with them.”

The source added that Hamas has never used its weapons within or outside the camps, “except during the phase of support for the war against Israel under Hezbollah’s supervision.” The recent launch of rockets from southern Lebanon, the source said, “was a mistake by undisciplined individuals,” noting that Hamas informed Lebanese authorities of the incident and handed over the suspects. The group pointed to the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee as the appropriate channel for discussions on the issue.

Ali Barakeh, Hamas’ head of national relations in Lebanon, told AFP ahead of Abbas’ visit to Beirut that a purely security-focused approach would be misguided.

“We call on the Lebanese government and President Mahmoud Abbas to adopt a comprehensive approach, not one limited to weapons and security,” he said. “At the same time, we demand civil and human rights for our Palestinian people in Lebanon.”

With regional dynamics shifting and Lebanon facing growing internal and external pressure to disarm all non-state actors, Hamas may find itself increasingly cornered.

“Hamas no longer has any cards to play,” said retired Brigadier General and former MP Wehbe Katicha. “Following Hezbollah’s setbacks, the group has lost its ability to operate in the Lebanese arena.”

Katicha told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah had attempted to activate Hamas after the latest ceasefire by encouraging rocket attacks on Israel, but the move was widely rejected and Hezbollah can no longer provide political or military cover.

“Hamas will have no choice but to cooperate,” Katicha said, dismissing talk of preconditions.

“The Palestinian Authority speaks for the Palestinian people. The camps are under Lebanese jurisdiction, and the Lebanese state has the duty to coordinate with the Authority to implement a disarmament mechanism.”

Not everyone sees disarmament as a straightforward path. Political analyst Qassem Qassir warned that any push to remove Palestinian weapons, especially without broad consensus, could backfire.

“This is a highly complex issue, particularly under current regional tensions,” Qassir said. “At best, Lebanon can aim to regulate weapons use within the camps.”

“This issue needs to be handled with the same patience Speaker Nabih Berri spoke of, and through the dialogue President Joseph Aoun has called for,” he said. “The region is volatile. No one can predict what will happen next.”

The “Unified Palestinian Movement,” a coalition representing factions inside Lebanon’s camps, issued a strong statement on the eve of Abbas’ visit, rejecting any unilateral move to disarm Palestinian groups without consultation.

“The issue of Palestinian arms in Lebanon is not just a technical or military matter,” the statement said. “It is deeply tied to the right of return, the dignity of the Palestinian people, their right to protection, and their political and social presence, especially as Palestinians in Lebanon are still denied even their most basic civil and human rights.”

The group criticized what it described as Abbas’ intention to hand over Palestinian weapons to the Lebanese state without prior coordination with local factions or representatives of the Palestinian community in Lebanon.

Under a longstanding informal arrangement, Palestinian factions — including Fatah, Hamas, and others — maintain internal security inside Lebanon’s 12 refugee camps, where the Lebanese Army does not operate. While this setup has prevented direct state intervention, it has also allowed the proliferation of arms and factional tensions.