One week into the ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hezbollah, the agreement is already under strain. Since its implementation last Wednesday, there have been several registered violations.

The situation along the southern Lebanon-Israel border remains volatile, contradicting earlier expectations of calm following the ceasefire deal.

Despite its shaky foundations, the ceasefire has not yet broken down. It faced a critical test on Monday when Israel launched its most extensive airstrikes on Lebanon since the agreement took effect, killing at least 12 people, according to Lebanese authorities.

The strikes came in response to a volley of projectiles fired by Hezbollah in the disputed Shebaa Farms area, which the militant group described as a warning against Israeli breaches of the agreement. The Israeli military reported that the two missiles launched caused no casualties.

The truce, which came into effect on November 27 aiming to end 14 months of war between the two sides, prohibits Israel from conducting offensive military operations in Lebanon while requiring Lebanon to prevent armed groups, including Hezbollah, from attacking Israel. It includes a 60-day timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon. However, enforcement remains a challenge.

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Monday that while the ceasefire “is holding,” violations were anticipated.

“There is often a distinction between the agreement as written and how it is implemented on the ground,” David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official involved in Gulf policy now with the US National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center, told Al Arabiya English.

“For instance, without the effective enforcement of UN Resolution 1701 in the past, the resolution failed to achieve its intended outcome, and Hezbollah established a ‘sate within a state.’”

UN Resolution 1701, adopted in August 2006, marked the conclusion of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah by calling for a ceasefire, Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of armed groups like Hezbollah. The resolution aimed to forge a long-term ceasefire and stabilize southern Lebanon, though both parties violated its terms.

This time, a US-led monitoring committee has been tasked with verifying and helping enforce the truce, but it has yet to begin its work. Reuters reported that the committee’s inaugural meeting is scheduled for Thursday.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally who negotiated the deal on Lebanon’s behalf, urged the committee to “urgently” ensure the halt of Israeli violations, saying Beirut had logged at least 54 violations of the ceasefire by Israel thus far.

A UN source told Al Arabiya English that Hezbollah breached the truce for the first time on Monday.

Testing the truce

The ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel marks a tenuous pause in yet another volatile conflict in the region. Firas Maksad from the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank described it as “hanging by a thread” in a post on X.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that any infraction of the truce, however minor, would be met with severe repercussions.

“We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist,” he said. “We are currently in a ceasefire, I note, a ceasefire, not the end of the war.”

Both sides have traded accusations of violating the agreement. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar dismissed allegations against Israel, instead accusing Hezbollah of moving weapons and breaching the Litani River demarcation outlined in the deal.

Experts argue Israel is attempting to redefine the terms of the ceasefire agreement, asserting its perceived right to launch attacks against what it deems Hezbollah threats.

Hezbollah, however, interprets the situation differently. Its rocket attack on Monday followed statements from the United States and France – both part of the monitoring committee – accusing Israel of violating the truce terms.

Israel appears intent on creating a reality where it can act with minimal restraint against any position it considers a threat. In contrast, Hezbollah seeks to counter this narrative, aiming to assert a deterrent capacity and avoid the perception of passivity.

“Both parties are testing the boundaries and trying to define the norms by which they will operate,” said Des Roches.

“The current phase is essentially about setting de facto rules of engagement through actions on the ground. While these dynamics increase tension and the risk of further violations, they do not necessarily signify the immediate failure of the ceasefire. Instead, they represent the complex and often contentious process of determining how such agreements are translated into reality.”

Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert and nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, believes the primary issues jeopardizing the ceasefire are rooted in Israeli violations.

“A ceasefire, by definition, means an end to hostilities, yet we’ve seen consistent actions by Israel that contradict this premise, including shelling villages, conducting airstrikes and targeting civilians,” he told Al Arabiya English. “The agreement contains no provisions governing the return of Lebanese civilians to their homes or permitting Israel to designate restricted zones where civilians are prohibited.”

“Israeli operations have not been limited to the southern Litani sector; airstrikes have been carried out north of the Litani River and even as far as the northern Bekaa. Just recently, one such strike injured a Lebanese soldier,” Blanford added.

Thousands of displaced Lebanese rushed to return home as the ceasefire began. However, over the weekend, the Israeli military said that Lebanese residents were prohibited from moving south to several villages and asked them not to return to around 62 villages in the area.

Blanford suggests that this pattern of violations underscores two key motivations. “First, Israel appears intent on projecting an image of Hezbollah’s defeat and its own military dominance,” he said. “Second, there’s a domestic political element: segments of the Israeli population – particularly extremists within the government and residents in the north – remain dissatisfied with the ceasefire, believing it was premature and insufficiently punitive toward Hezbollah.”

“Israel is aware that each provocation risks further destabilizing an already fragile agreement,” he added.

Preventing collapse

The Lebanese army, responsible for enforcing many of Lebanon’s obligations under the ceasefire, would need Hezbollah’s cooperation to successfully execute its tasks.

These operations will unfold as thousands of displaced Lebanese return to their homes. The army will need to carefully monitor vehicles entering the area for illegal arms and maintain vigilance over construction sites to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.

Also, tensions between civilians and Israeli troops, who will likely remain in southern Lebanon during the initial 60-day ceasefire period, will require careful management to prevent escalation.

“The Lebanese Armed Forces have long expressed their desire to assert full sovereignty over the entire country, but refrained from challenging Hezbollah due to its strength,” said Des Roches. “With Hezbollah now in a period of weakness, those funding the Lebanese army expect it to rise to the occasion and enforce sovereignty across all of Lebanon, including the southern part of the country and the area south of the Litani River.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened on Tuesday to resume hostilities in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah fails, saying that any future strikes would target deeper into Lebanese territory, including the state itself.

Analysts say the success of the ceasefire hinges on the proper implementation of the agreement by both sides.

“Israel must not misuse the freedom of action clause. It should notify the oversight committee of suspected Hezbollah activities and allow them to address it before acting unilaterally,” said Riad Kahwaji, a Lebanese military expert.

“Similarly, Hezbollah must pull out from south of the Litani and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese army,” Kahwaji added. “Any delay could provide Israel with the justification to attack, undermining the ceasefire.”