Lebanese citizens are stepping into 2025 with cautious optimism, still bearing the scars of a tumultuous past year. The 65-day Israeli offensive in 2024, which claimed thousands of lives, injured many more, and displaced hundreds of thousands, stands as one of the most devastating periods in the country’s recent history.

However, developments since late summer have ignited hope for a more stable future. A reduction in Iranian influence, setbacks for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—severing Tehran’s supply route to its proxy in Lebanon—have sparked cautious optimism. Many believe these shifts could provide an opportunity to rebuild a functional state after years of parallel governance.

Presidential Elections on the Horizon

A critical task for Lebanon in 2025 is resolving the long-standing presidential vacancy, which has left the country’s highest office unfilled for over two years.

Efforts in 2024 stalled as the Shiite duo, Amal and Hezbollah, focused on supporting Gaza and countering Israel’s offensive. However, Speaker Nabih Berri has called for a parliamentary session on January 9, raising hopes for a breakthrough after 12 inconclusive election attempts since 2023. Observers believe Hezbollah’s weakened position may push key parliamentary blocs to reconsider their stances, potentially paving the way for a resolution in the coming weeks.

Formation of a New Government

Once a president is elected, a prime minister is expected to be appointed to form a government capable of addressing Lebanon’s myriad challenges, from financial and economic instability to political reform.

A priority will be ensuring the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement brokered on November 27, 2024. This agreement mandates the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese border towns by January 26, 2025. Yet doubts linger over Israel’s adherence to the timeline, given its record of over 800 ceasefire violations. A failure to withdraw could risk reigniting hostilities.

With stability, Lebanon must embark on reconstruction. While international aid is anticipated, it will likely come with political conditions, particularly concerning Hezbollah and Amal’s role in governance.

The contentious issue of Hezbollah’s arms is also expected to resurface. Although Hezbollah has signaled potential openness to discussing a national defense strategy, opposition forces are demanding the group’s complete disarmament in favor of consolidating authority under the Lebanese Army.

Additionally, the new government will need to redefine Lebanon’s relationship with a “new Syria” post-Assad. This includes revisiting bilateral agreements and addressing the critical issue of Syrian refugees, hundreds of thousands of whom have lived in Lebanon since the Syrian conflict began in 2011.

Disarmament and Reconstruction

Dr. Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, expressed optimism about 2025, arguing that Hezbollah’s diminished power might force it to disarm completely.

“If Hezbollah refuses, Israel could launch another military campaign,” Khashan warned.

He predicted that a president would likely be elected early in the year, possibly in January, but stressed the importance of financial reforms for Lebanon’s recovery. However, Khashan expressed skepticism about broader political and administrative reforms, citing Lebanon’s entrenched sectarianism. He suggested that federalism, potentially inspired by Syria’s shifting governance, might offer a long-term solution.

Economic and Financial Challenges

Lebanon’s economy enters 2025 burdened by years of compounded crises, worsened by the nation’s decision to support Gaza in 2024, which accelerated its financial collapse.

Dr. Maroun Khater, an expert in financial and economic affairs, highlighted the immense toll of the war, which shifted national priorities toward reconstruction. Addressing foundational issues—such as assessing losses, restructuring the banking sector, and stabilizing the currency—will be crucial, he said.

Khater called for a comprehensive economic overhaul, advocating for clear and consistent fiscal policies to replace the ad hoc measures of recent years. He also emphasized the importance of renegotiating agreements with Syria, restoring ties with Arab nations, and resuming discussions with international donors, particularly the International Monetary Fund, under revised terms.

This article is an adaptation of an Arabic piece published in Asharq Al-Awsat.