What was once hailed by Hezbollah as a symbolic day of triumph on May 7 was this year overshadowed by a major Israeli military escalation. On the anniversary of the 2008 events that solidified Hezbollah’s domestic dominance, the group instead found itself under fire as Israeli warplanes carried out 14 consecutive airstrikes on the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh.

The strikes, launched in two intense waves, formed a ring of fire around the city. In a statement following the operation, Israel said it had destroyed what it described as “strategic tunnels” operated by Hezbollah. The airstrikes came on the heels of sharp remarks by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, who warned that the conflict could soon reach Tehran.

“The era of proxy wars is over,” he said, adding that Israel is moving toward direct confrontation with “the leader of the axis,” rather than merely targeting its regional affiliates.

Military observers believe the targeted sites may have included locations revealed by Hezbollah in a 2024 documentary titled “Our Mountains, Our Treasures,” which showcased an expansive tunnel network built in rugged, hard-to-detect terrain. The use of bunker-busting munitions in the airstrikes drew particular attention, fueling speculation that the same type of ordnance may have been used in the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Safieddine.

One military expert noted that Israel appears to be acting swiftly in response to signals it views as threatening, chief among them growing talk of a potential U.S.-Iran understanding on the nuclear file. Such a development, Israel believes, would pose a direct threat to its national security and strategic interests.

As a result, Tel Aviv seems intent on reshaping the landscape through unilateral military action in southern Lebanon, turning the area into a testing ground for broader deterrence messaging. The goal, analysts suggest, may also include accelerating the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and pushing for Hezbollah’s disarmament, without negotiations or political compromise.  

The escalation has left Hezbollah on unsteady ground, in a position far more fragile than it is accustomed to. Analysts increasingly suggest that Tehran could be willing to bargain away some of its regional assets, including Hezbollah, as part of broader international settlements.

According to the same expert, Hezbollah, long ideologically and operationally tied to Iran, now finds itself sidelined from high-level talks. Mounting indicators suggest any potential agreement between Washington and Tehran may come at Hezbollah’s expense.

In closing remarks to kataeb.org, the expert predicted that Israel will likely continue its military escalation in the coming phase. Leaks from diplomatic channels point to progress in nuclear negotiations, positive signs of de-escalation in the Red Sea, and renewed Gulf-mediated efforts to revive indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran; all of these are factors that may drive Israel to act more aggressively in the short term.

This is the English adaptation of an article posted on kataeb.org by Chady Hilani.