The future of Hezbollah is increasingly uncertain, marred by internal divisions and unexpected upheavals. Despite the group's efforts to maintain a façade of cohesion, discipline, and continuity, this year’s municipal elections have pulled back the curtain, revealing deep fractures within its ranks and discontent brewing at the very heart of its support base.

No longer confined to whispered speculation or political analysis from rivals, the once-taboo subject of internal strife within Hezbollah is now playing out in the open. Nowhere is this more evident than in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah’s traditional stronghold, where voter turnout barely exceeded 31%  in the first phase of the municipal vote in Mount Lebanon. This is not just a statistical dip; it’s a striking indication of shifting loyalties and evolving moods within the party’s core constituency.

According to information obtained by kataeb.org, several local figures who once ran on Hezbollah’s electoral lists are now establishing backchannels with an Arab state. In private political circles, talk is growing of the emergence of two rival camps within the party: an “Arab wing” and an “Iranian wing.” The mere existence of such discourse is unprecedented and may represent one of Hezbollah’s most glaring internal failures to date. Nowhere was this more visible than in the town of Lassa, where Hezbollah supporters were pitted against one another in a contest that exposed the party’s inability to maintain internal unity.

Perhaps the most dramatic shift came in the Bekaa Valley, where a political earthquake rocked the Shiite community after Hezbollah had imposed party loyalists on local families. The move triggered a wave of resentment and alienation. The situation in the South was no different as deepening divisions have paralyzed several municipalities. In some cases, according to a neutral observer with knowledge of the process, outside actors have directly intervened in the electoral process, constituting an unprecedented intrusion into Hezbollah’s local dominance.

In the southern town of Sajid, grassroots confusion turned into outright fragmentation when Hezbollah failed to form a unified list. Consequently, two competing lists emerged—one backed by the party’s official leadership, and another reportedly funded by a wealthy Lebanese businessman living in the Gulf. Such internal competition is virtually unheard of within a group that prides itself on strict organizational discipline.

Shiite sources familiar with the matter told kataeb.org that the unusual organizational paralysis seen in these elections may signal the beginning of a structural unraveling that threatens the cohesiveness of the party’s base. The disconnect between Hezbollah’s top-down decisions and the convictions of its rank and file is growing wider. In some cases, tensions have escalated to the point of direct threats being exchanged among party members.

The facts speak for themselves: Hezbollah is struggling to defend its political, social, and developmental standing after suffering one of the most serious security blows in its history. What began as a military setback during the recent conflict with Israel has now morphed into an electoral struggle unfolding inside the party’s own organizational home. And with that, the map of its influence across the South, the Bekaa, and even Beirut may be on the verge of a dramatic redraw.

Hezbollah’s once-monolithic image has cracked. And the cracks are no longer beneath the surface.

This is the English adaptation of an Arabic article posted on Kataeb.org by Chady Hilani.