The regional order has changed – not gradually, but in a single, shattering blow. The war between Israel and Iran has concluded after a series of devastating Israeli and US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic infrastructure.

These operations, which unfolded with the full approval and logistical support of US President Donald Trump, also included a coordinated strike that killed several top IRGC military and nuclear officials. It was a campaign designed not just to disrupt Iran’s capabilities, but to shatter the illusion of untouchability surrounding its leadership and proxy network.

This was not just a military success – it was a strategic rupture.

Nowhere was this shift more palpable than in Lebanon. Hezbollah – the crown jewel in Iran’s axis of influence – remained silent. Its much-hyped “resistance” stood still as its patron was battered. This was not restraint. This was deterioration – operational, political, and symbolic.

For years, Hezbollah thrived on mythology: the “defender of Lebanon,” the “deterrent to Israel,” the “voice of the marginalized Shia.” Today, that mythology lies in ruins. The movement failed to act not because it chose peace, but because it could not afford escalation. The group’s inability to retaliate during the most direct assault on Iran’s sovereignty in recent memory speaks volumes about its declining capacity and fear of internal and regional backlash.

This moment is as rare as it is volatile. Lebanon stands before a narrow window in which it can begin dismantling militia dominance, rebuild state legitimacy, and restore sovereignty.
The path forward is clear: disarm Hezbollah, restore state institutions, and reclaim Lebanese sovereignty. Half-measures and appeasement have failed. If Lebanon is to survive, the era of armed militias must end.

Hezbollah’s weapons, veto power, and parallel institutions are not an internal Lebanese problem – they are a regional cancer. And yet, despite the passage of nearly two decades since UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of all non-state actors in Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to argue that its arms are untouchable.

That must end. Claims by political allies of Hezbollah that the resolution applies only south of the Litani River are legally baseless and strategically dangerous. There can be no sovereign state with zones of impunity. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), while respected, remain hindered by political interference and Hezbollah infiltration. That, too, must be addressed.

Washington’s Lebanon policy must pivot – from containment to consequence. The United States must appoint a new ambassador to Beirut with a direct mandate: Enforce 1701, support institutional reform, and back the full disarmament of Hezbollah. Washington must also replace its current special envoy with a senior figure capable of confronting both Hezbollah’s regional enablers and its Western protectors –chief among them France, whose ongoing indulgence of Hezbollah undermines any hope of progress.

Sanctions must expand – not only against Hezbollah operatives but also their financiers, political allies, and business networks across banking, construction, and telecommunications. Compliance mechanisms must be enforced on institutions that enable or tolerate Hezbollah’s armed presence.

But pressure alone is not enough. A viable strategy requires strengthening Lebanon’s civic immune system. Washington must double down on support for civil society, independent universities, and non-sectarian organizations – particularly in historically neglected regions like the Shia south and Beqaa Valley. Empowering Shia voices that reject militia dominance is essential to dismantling Hezbollah’s false claim to community representation.

President Joseph Aoun’s inaugural promises must now be tested. If he truly stands for sovereignty and reform, let him prove it – by endorsing a disarmament timetable, implementing electoral reforms, and refusing all covert deals with Hezbollah or its allies.

The narrative that disarming Hezbollah would spark civil war is fiction – a fear tactic propagated by those who benefit from armed chaos. In truth, what threatens Lebanon is not disarmament, but the continued normalization of militias. Many Lebanese – including Shia – are exhausted by the economic collapse, diplomatic isolation, and perpetual conflict that Hezbollah’s weapons have brought.

Media is a critical tool. Lebanese and regional platforms must be mobilized to shift public opinion. They must highlight Hezbollah’s costs to the nation, amplify Shiia civil society voices demanding reform, and frame disarmament not as a threat, but as a patriotic imperative. Media must call out political obstruction, expose the price of militia dominance, and foster a narrative centered on sovereignty and lawfulness.

This is not about punishing Lebanon – it’s about rescuing it. The time for half-measures is over. The United States must reinforce its friends, isolate its adversaries, and support the emergence of a Lebanon defined not by militias, but by institutions.

Lebanon cannot reclaim its future while armed factions claim its present. No more weapons outside the state. No more excuses. The war between Iran and Israel may be over, but Lebanon’s fight – for sovereignty, law, and survival – has only just begun.