The U.S. air strikes on Iran have thrown fuel on an increasingly public debate inside the Islamic Republic over whether 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should remain at the apex of power, according to multiple sources cited by The Atlantic. 

Even before U.S. warplanes hit nuclear-linked facilities at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan on Saturday night, a loose coalition of businessmen, Revolutionary Guard commanders, senior bureaucrats and relatives of influential clerics had begun sketching an alternative leadership blueprint, the sources said.

Under Iran’s constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts can vote to remove the supreme leader, but orchestrating such a move is considered politically impossible for now. The conspirators therefore favour what one participant called a “soft sideline” of Khamenei: persuading him to cede real authority to a small ruling committee while remaining the nominal guide.

Former president Hassan Rouhani is being floated for a prominent seat on that body, and several military officers involved have sounded out counterparts in “a major Gulf country” for regional backing, the sources added. European diplomats have likewise been approached.

“Ours is just one idea,” one person involved in conversations said. “Tehran is now full of such plots. They are also talking to Europeans about the future of Iran. Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered. Even if he stays in office, he won’t have actual power.”

The U.S. strikes appear to have sharpened the intrigue. Minutes after explosions lit up Iranian skies, the same source said the chances of sidelining the supreme leader had “increased,” though he conceded the backlash could just as easily fortify Khamenei’s position. Another source sounded less hopeful: “Even if Iran chooses a hard-line response, Khamenei might still have to be pushed aside.”

Inside the establishment, the blows have split opinion. Some insiders, including the would-be plotters, argue for urgent talks with Washington even at the cost of Khamenei’s ouster. Hard-liners counter that any climb-down will invite more aggression.

“Iran will respond and the war will expand, even if only for the time being,” said Mostafa Najafi, a security analyst close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Najafi told The Atlantic a day earlier that Tehran had braced for months of conflict and retained “considerable” missile and drone capacity despite a week of Israeli raids. Iran’s long practice of asymmetric warfare, he said, positioned it for a drawn-out fight with the United States and Israel. Until now, Iran had avoided unleashing regional militias against American targets, but a direct U.S. hit “changes the calculus,” he added.

Events may be moving faster than the supreme leader can control. Mojtaba Dehghani, a Europe-based analyst with contacts inside Tehran, predicted Iran might stage a symbolic strike on U.S. bases in Iraq in coming days, only to find the conflict widening and rival factions seizing the moment to seek a settlement with Washington.