The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) warned that a large-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel could erupt at any moment, citing mounting evidence of preemptive preparations by the Lebanese militant group for a major military confrontation.

According to the Israeli think tank, Hezbollah’s recent rhetoric and logistical movements indicate that the group is bracing for renewed conflict. The institute noted that Hezbollah leaders have resumed speaking openly about confrontation with Israel and have begun distributing aid and supplies in what appears to be part of broader wartime preparations. The report suggested that hostilities could begin as early as August.

This assessment comes amid rising frustration in both Washington and Tel Aviv over what they see as a tepid response from Lebanese authorities to the proposal advanced by U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack. That frustration is compounded by growing uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)’s mandate, which expires later this month.

Both Israel and the United States oppose automatically renewing the UNIFIL mandate unless the force is granted full authority to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and the reassertion of Lebanese state sovereignty over its southern territory.

The long-simmering war of words between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified in recent weeks, with Hezbollah publicly refusing to disarm. The group argues that relinquishing its weapons would, in effect, hand over its arsenal to Israel. JISS warned that such rhetoric, coupled with the group’s mobilization efforts, raises serious concerns about the potential for mass population displacement in the event of war.

Fears are particularly acute in southern Lebanon, which is widely expected to serve as the primary theater of any new conflict.

According to the JISS report, Hezbollah is currently setting up four logistical warehouses in the northern regions of Minieh, Batroun, Akkar, and Jbeil. Meanwhile, to support potential wartime operations, the group has been transporting mattresses, blankets, and medical supplies to Shiite-majority villages in northeast Lebanon, including Habbshit and Qarha in Akkar, as well as Bhaboush, Bnahran, and Zgharta al-Metawleh in the Koura district. Witnesses have observed lines of small trucks moving these supplies into their designated storage sites.

The think tank noted that Hezbollah’s campaign has met with mixed reactions on the ground. Some Sunni-majority municipalities have reportedly shown reluctance to cooperate, while Alawite-majority areas are said to be struggling due to the ongoing burden of hosting large numbers of Syrian refugees.

Amid this backdrop, rumors of an impending Israeli offensive are spreading rapidly in southern Lebanon, with widespread speculation that Israeli forces could strike Hezbollah targets not only in the south, but also in Beirut and northern areas of the country.

Tensions are also rising in the Baalbek-Hermel region of the Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold believed to house a large portion of the group’s missile arsenal. The region is widely viewed as a likely Israeli target in the event of a broader military campaign.

The JISS report stressed that Hezbollah’s preparations are taking place largely outside the framework of Lebanon’s official institutions; a dynamic it said highlights both the weakness of the Lebanese state and Hezbollah’s entrenched role as a dominant and disruptive force in the country.