New developments in southern Lebanon indicate that Israel is pursuing a systematic campaign to destroy villages and towns along the Lebanese-Israeli border, a move experts say goes beyond the concept of a temporary buffer zone and may signal an effort to impose a de facto or semi-permanent occupation, Erem News reported. 

Official Lebanese estimates suggest that between 80 and 122 villages and towns along the Blue Line or within the southern border strip are at risk. Of these, 40 to 60 frontline villages lie directly on the border or within a few kilometers, including Naqoura, Alma al-Shaab, Kfarkila, Maroun al-Ras, Ayta al-Shaab, Al-Tiri, Yater, Yaroun, Mansouri, and Shebaa.

Since late February, Israel has issued mass evacuation orders affecting over 100 villages south of the Litani River and across southern Lebanon, warning residents to avoid Hezbollah positions or remain in their homes.

Recent days have seen a sharp escalation in airstrikes targeting key infrastructure, including bridges at Khardali, Tayr Felsay, and Qantara in Wadi al-Hujeir, as well as major roads such as Khiyam–Marjayoun and Debbine–Marjayoun. Attacks on cellular networks have effectively paralyzed transportation and communications in the region.

Political analyst Gebran Touma told Erem News that Israel is implementing a plan to separate southern towns and villages south of the Litani by destroying infrastructure and issuing evacuation orders, paving the way for permanent military positions.

“The destruction of infrastructure is aimed at crippling logistical support for any forces in the area, making it easier to establish military control,” Touma said, warning that these measures could lead to long-term demographic shifts, complicating any return to the previous status quo and fueling internal sectarian tensions.

Another analyst, Salman al-Tawil, noted that Israel appears to be drawing on the Gaza model, using depopulation to impose lasting security conditions in southern Lebanon. He described the measures as a form of “soft demographic cleansing” that could weaken Hezbollah’s connection to its support base. According to al-Tawil, occupying areas south of the Litani has become a strategic priority for Israel to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capabilities.

The escalation comes as Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun announced the state’s agreement to direct negotiations with Israel — a significant departure from previous Lebanese policy. Analysts say Israel is using its military presence and destruction of infrastructure to set conditions before any direct talks, particularly concerning Hezbollah’s disarmament and the creation of a permanent security zone under Israeli control.

Observers warn that Israel’s targeting of dozens of border villages could push Lebanon back into open conflict, potentially sparking a new wave of resistance and complicating future political settlements.