The United States and the United Arab Emirates have engaged in discussions over potentially lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he distances himself from Iran and halts weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Reuters revealed, citing five sources familiar with the matter.

The talks have gained momentum in recent months, driven by the looming expiration on December 20 of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria and by Israel’s intensified campaign against Iran’s regional network, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian assets in Syria.

The discussions preceded a major offensive last week by anti-Assad rebels in Aleppo, marking their most significant advance in years. Sources suggest the rebel gains signal a potential vulnerability in Assad’s alliance with Tehran, which the U.S.-UAE initiative seeks to exploit. However, an Iranian-backed counteroffensive could complicate efforts to weaken the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah axis.

U.S. and Emirati officials see an opportunity to fracture Assad’s ties with Tehran, which provided critical support to his regime during Syria’s civil war, sources told Reuters.

A senior U.S. source cited Assad's “weakened position” after Israeli strikes on Hezbollah as a pivotal factor.

“The possibility of sanctions relief for Assad, while Israel is targeting Iran’s allies, creates an opportunity to apply a carrot-and-stick approach,” the source said.

The UAE has played a key role in attempts to reintegrate Assad into the Arab fold, hosting him in 2022 for his first visit to an Arab country since the war began and advocating for Syria's reinstatement into the Arab League. The Emirates, keen to establish business ties with Damascus, has long sought to reduce Assad’s reliance on Iran.

However, U.S. sanctions—particularly the Caesar Act, which applies extraterritorially to anyone engaging with Syria—have obstructed such efforts. These sanctions, passed by Congress in 2019, are set to expire unless renewed later this month. 

Recent U.S.-UAE talks have also explored allowing the Caesar sanctions to lapse, sources said. The UAE reportedly raised the issue with White House officials months ago, following unsuccessful attempts to secure temporary sanctions relief after a devastating earthquake in Syria in February 2023.

In parallel, Gulf states have offered financial incentives to Assad. A Gulf-based diplomat said both the UAE and Saudi Arabia had recently proposed funding for Syrian reconstruction as a means to pry Assad away from Iran, adding that these offers were likely coordinated with Washington.

“The UAE pledged funds to help rebuild Syria’s war-ravaged infrastructure, aiming to pull Assad further from Iran,” a Lebanese source said.

Iran, however, remains vigilant. A regional diplomat briefed by Tehran said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conveyed a warning to Assad through his adviser Ali Larijani: “Do not forget the past.”

Despite Iran’s mobilization of its allies in the wake of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, Assad has largely refrained from direct involvement. U.S. officials note his reluctance to provoke further Israeli strikes on Syrian territory, even as Israel has targeted Hezbollah positions in Syria and bombed an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus.

“Assad has sat out the war to avoid additional Israeli strikes and remains under tremendous pressure not to allow Hezbollah to re-arm through Syria,” a U.S. official said.