With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Turkiye’s relations with Syria’s neighbors such as Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, have entered a new phase. In Lebanon last week, Turkiye and its position in the region was a significant topic of discussion. 

Syria lies between Turkiye and Lebanon, and both are significantly influenced by the political and security dynamics arising from the Syrian Arab Republic. Syria’s path to stability is the most critical issue aligning Turkish and Lebanese interests. Turkiye has recently included Lebanon in the regional security alliance it leads alongside Syria’s other neighbors, including Jordan and Iraq. Although Lebanon is a small state and not always a central focus in Turkiye’s foreign policy agenda, Turkiye is keen to have a significant footprint in the country and appears poised to deepen its relations further with the new Cabinet in Beirut. 

Turkiye is not a newcomer to Lebanon. It played an important role in brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Lebanon war in 2006. Since then, Turkish troops have participated in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, established under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, actively contributing to the peacekeeping and monitoring mission.

The Turkish parliament renews the mandate for Turkish troops’ presence in Lebanon each year. Turkiye was also active in the resolution of Lebanon’s presidential crisis in 2007 and 2008. The crisis ended when Lebanese factions signed an agreement in Doha in 2008. Turkiye’s diplomatic engagement in that agreement, and the formation of a national unity government in Lebanon, contributed to a positive perception of Turkiye in the country.

Turkiye also financially supported the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, established through UN Security Council Resolution 1757, to investigate and prosecute those responsible for the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik. 

In 2010, Turkiye included Lebanon in its initiative to create a free trade zone with Syria and Jordan, and proposed a visa-free travel area. These plans were disrupted by the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Although Turkiye’s Lebanon policy is under-prioritized, with no consistent long-term strategy, since Assad’s collapse and the weakening of Iranian proxies Turkiye is recalibrating its policy toward Syria’s neighbors, including Lebanon. 

According to Dr. Tuba Yıldız, an expert on Turkish-Lebanese relations, Turkiye has no foreign policy approach specifically tailored to Lebanon. “The most important issue for Turkiye is Lebanon’s relationship with the new Syrian leadership and the erosion of Iran’s influence over Lebanon. Turkiye is closely monitoring this. While Lebanon is also cautiously aligning itself with Turkiye’s policies. Turkiye’s position in the new Syria has been a driving force behind this approach,” she said. 

Turkiye’s new approach to Lebanon appears to rest on four main pillars: winning hearts and minds through soft power, deepening bilateral trade, counterbalancing the influence of Iran and Israel in Lebanon, and strengthening ties between Beirut and Damascus. 

Lebanon is entering a new phase that is likely to reshape its relations with regional actors. After a two-year deadlock, the election of a new president and the appointment of a prime minister are promising signs. Both leaders are perceived favorably by Turkiye and the Gulf states. To move forward, Lebanon must be fully reintegrated into the regional system. Turkiye has a key role to play here, particularly in helping Lebanon become part of new regional security and economic alliances.

Lebanese politicians hold expectations for their relations with Turkiye as they view their country’s relations with Ankara important, especially in the context of Turkiye’s growing role in Syria. This sentiment was echoed when former Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said: “Lebanon has been through a severe crisis, but we have learned that our trust in Allah, and in our friends, especially Turkiye, has been our strength.” 

Lebanon and Syria share more than a border: their political and security futures are deeply intertwined. The recent visit of the new Lebanese prime minister to Damascus signals a potential turning point. For Turkiye, this visit is a positive development, reinforcing the Levantine cooperation essential for not only Syria’s stability, but also Lebanon’s stability. 

Given its current vulnerabilities, Lebanon is in no position to confront Israel directly. It requires security assurances from regional powers, including Turkiye. Regional states do not want the war to expand to Lebanon and through strengthening military cooperation with Lebanon, they could help ensure security and stability in the country. 

Geostrategically, Lebanon has an economic significance for Turkiye beyond its proximity to Syria. Lebanon is an actor in the eastern Mediterranean, where Turkiye has substantial interests. In the past few years, Turkiye has found itself excluded from the equation formed there by Arab and European states. Ankara is therefore seeking new partners to strengthen its position in the eastern Mediterranean, and Lebanon could be one such partner. 

Lebanon is a country that needs strong regional support, from both Turkiye and Arab countries. Despite its domestic challenges and security vulnerabilities, Lebanon’s stability is significant not only for Syria but also for the broader region.