Lebanon’s current challenges are a direct result of the country’s civil war, which began in 1975 and continued until 1990. When the war ended, most of the armed militias were supposed to lay down their arms. However, Hezbollah became significantly stronger. It stockpiled more than 150,000 rockets, built kamikaze drones, and used the Lebanon as a base of operations to attack Israel and operate in other countries. Hezbollah was severely weakened in 2024 after several weeks of heavy fighting with Israel. A ceasefire in November 2024 paved the way for the new reality for the country. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 has also cut off Hezbollah from Iranian arms trafficked through Syria.

These developments have emboldened Lebanon’s government. The Abbas-Aoun agreement is significant because it enables the government to collect arms from Palestinian groups peacefully. The agreement covered groups such as Fatah, which are part of the Palestinian Authority. However, it does not cover Hamas, which has many supporters in Lebanon. 

Nevertheless, when it comes to disarmament, one has to start somewhere, and the Palestinian Authority is showing that it can achieve results in this case. Abbas has continued to message about the importance of disarmament, stating that the PA is “determined to withdraw all Palestinian arms from Lebanon.” The disarmament will begin in the southern Lebanese camps inhabited by Palestinian refugees who fled to these areas in 1948 during the first Arab-Israeli War. Despite the “camp” label, these are dense urban areas where armed militants flourish.

Lebanon’s initiative could help put the wind in the sails of other changes in the region. Israel has been fighting for twenty-two months in Gaza against Hamas. As the war drags on, it is not clear how Israel will achieve its goals of defeating Hamas, bringing the hostages home, and removing Hamas as Gaza’s governing authority.

Could Israel disarm Gaza in the way Lebanon has begun to disarm some groups? If confidence can be built in Gaza that Hamas or other terror groups don’t have weapons to terrorize civilians, then a different civilian-led government might emerge. Currently, the Israeli government has asked around 2 million civilians to evacuate to three zones within the Strip to isolate what remains of Hamas rule over about a quarter of the territory. The Israel Defense Forces are pushing into Gaza City as part of a new offensive. The problem is that there is no clear vision for what comes next in Gaza. How will armed groups such as Hamas be prevented from returning to strategic areas if a ceasefire deal takes place?

The key to peace in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as other places in the region, is disarming extremist groups. For instance, Iraq is also saddled with Iranian-backed militias in the same way that Lebanon has been plagued by Hezbollah. The prominence of armed groups that have masses of weapons outside of state control, from Yemen to Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, has led to civil war and disaster. For obvious reasons, the region is seeking to end the prominence of heavily armed non-state actors and restore the state monopoly on the use of force. Lebanon’s step in the right direction might provide a playbook that can be applied elsewhere.